Indonesia Blackout: Uncovering the structural problems of the Indonesian coal supply chain

For this report, I worked alongside my colleagues at Trend Asia to investigate the paradox behind Indonesia’s 2026 power crisis. Blackouts hit Java-Madura-Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and the Riau Islands, with several coal-fired power plants running out of fuel, even as the country exported more than 231 million tonnes of coal in the first half of the year. Our research unpacked the regulatory architecture of the coal Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) and mapped coal flows using bulk carrier shipment data. Of the 50.97 million tonnes produced on average each month between January 2025 and June 2026, 22.68 million tonnes went to export markets and 11.8 million tonnes were absorbed by captive power plants serving smelters and the metallurgical industry, while plants run by PLN and independent power producers, which supply homes, schools, and hospitals, received only 6.67 million tonnes per month. The report also highlights loopholes embedded in Ministerial Decree No. 399/2023, under which sales to captive plants at market-linked prices count towards DMO compliance, while PLN’s coal price has been capped at US$70 per tonne since 2018, and penalties are low enough to be treated as a routine business cost.

Recommended citation: Trend Asia. (2026). Indonesia blackout: Mengungkap masalah struktural rantai pasok batubara [Indonesia blackout: Uncovering the structural problems of the Indonesian coal supply chain]. https://trendasia.org/indonesia-blackout-mengungkap-masalah-struktural-rantai-pasok-batubara/
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